2026 State Waterfowl Breeding Population Survey Roundup
Minnesota, Michigan, and Washington show increases in mallards and total ducks
By Paul Wait
Spring waterfowl surveys provide valuable data on duck and goose populations, but it’s important to recognize that each survey is one snapshot in time. Waterfowl migrate, often they’re here today, and gone tomorrow.
Survey results can swing wildly from year to year. In Minnesota and Michigan this year, changes that appear to be major population increases are most likely ducks responding to better wetland conditions in those areas when the surveys were conducted.
Still, these state surveys are encouraging. Duck numbers are estimated to be higher than 2025 in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Washington, while Oregon and California registered decreases. Although the spring breeding population estimate is lower in North Dakota, the state’s July brood survey showed increases in duck production over 2025.
While we await the results from the annual continental Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (expected from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in a few weeks), data from these independently conducted state surveys provides an indicator of conditions and populations across key regions of the breeding grounds.
Remember, we hunt the fall flight, which is the breeding population plus the year’s new ducks produced by this year’s nesting effort. Duck production — the numbers of yearling ducks in the fall flight — generally determines whether hunters experience an abundance of ducks over decoys when the autumn migration begin.
Delta would like to thank the following state agency people who supplied the survey data we’ve summarized hereafter:
Kali Rush, Michigan Dept. of Natural Resources
Taylor Finger, Wisconsin Dept. of Natural Resources
Nathaniel Huck, Minnesota Dept. of Natural Resources
John Palarski, North Dakota Game and Fish Department
Kyle Spragens, Washington Dept. of Fish and Wildlife
Brandon Reishus, Oregon Dept. of Fish and Wildlife
Melanie Weaver, California Dept. of Fish and Wildlife
Michigan
The state was about 40% wetter this spring than 2025, and the number of breeding waterfowl surveyed jumped, too. Michigan estimated 505,234 ducks, a 250% increase over 2025 estimates. It should be noted that the 2025 survey was affected by poor visibility and aircraft problems, likely resulting in lower totals last spring. The 2026 estimate is 13% below the long-term average.
At 141,895, mallards increased 61% over 2025. However, the 2026 mallard estimate is the third lowest since 1991 and sits 54% below the state’s LTA. Michigan notes that surveys continue to reflect a long-term decline in mallards in the Great Lakes states.
The news is better for Canada geese. Michigan estimated 251,695, an increase from 2025 and a population that’s 7% higher than the LTA.
Wisconsin
The state was wet this spring, and the survey indicates a slight increase in the number of ducks settling to breed. The estimate for total ducks is 571,460, a 1% increase over 2025 and 28% above the state’s long-term mean.
Mallards came in at 162,894, a 5% increase but still 8% below the LTM. Blue-winged teal rocketed to 111,917, a 19% jump that’s 7% above the LTM. The state’s blue-winged teal estimate is the highest since 2008. Wood ducks increased 6% to 95,313.
Canada geese remain abundant, despite a 2% drop to 122,922 this spring. The estimate is still 12.5% above the LTM for the population.
Minnesota
Although pond numbers and wetland habitats were only slightly higher than 2025, duck numbers surged 63% during this spring’s Minnesota breeding waterfowl survey. The state’s estimate of 678,914 breeding ducks is the most since 2019, and slightly above the long-term average.
Mallards increased 47% to 239,579, again the most since 2019. The 2026 mallard estimate is 5% above the state’s LTA.
Blue-winged teal estimates soared to 205,650, a 220% increase over 2025’s all-time survey low of 64,192. Even with the dramatic rebound this spring, bluewings are slightly below the long-term average in Minnesota.
Among other species, gadwalls, wood ducks, and shovelers showed notable increases over last year. At 108,378, Canada geese declined by 23% from the 2025 estimate, but the breeding population remains on par with most years since 2019 and is considered to be stable.
North Dakota
The number of breeding ducks settling in North Dakota this spring dropped 9.5% from 2025, and the state’s water index showed the landscape was 2.9% drier than last May.
The North Dakota Game and Fish Department’s Breeding Duck Survey estimated 2.4 million ducks — a decline of more than 250,000 ducks from the 2025 estimate. Notably, the 2026 estimate is 3.4% below North Dakota’s long-term annual breeding duck population estimate that dates back to 1948. It’s also the state’s lowest breeding population since 1994.
North Dakota is the heart of the U.S. prairie pothole region, annually producing millions of ducks that migrate throughout all four flyways.
Blue-winged teal, North Dakota’s most common nesting duck, were estimated at 525,163, a 23.4% decrease from 2025, and 26.7% below the long-term average.
The survey estimates 408,893 mallards, a 6.9% increase over last spring, but still 15.3% below the LTA and the second-lowest total since 1993. Pintails are a similar story, increasing 23.7% from 2025 to 171,371, but still 30.7% below average.
Among other puddle ducks surveyed, gadwalls dropped 13.8% to 353,326, shovelers declined by 11% to 297,136, and wigeon fell 4.2% to 28,328. Green-winged teal increased 20.9% to 33,309.
Diving duck numbers were down across all reported species, with a total estimate of 546,963, a 10.4% decline from 2025. Canvasbacks decreased 31.8%, redheads were down 6.3%, scaup were 12.3% lower, and ruddy ducks dipped 4.6%.
The survey estimates 199,232 Canada geese, a 6.5% decline from 2025, but still more than double the state’s population management objective.
Rainfall in late May and June helped fill wetlands, which should improve duck production and duckling survival.
In July, NDGFD released its annual brood survey, which showed a 55% increase in broods. As a result, the state projects North Dakota will produce a fall flight of 4 million ducks, which is more ducks than both 2024 and 2025.
Washington
Wetland conditions were drier on both sides of the state in 2026. However, waterfowl population estimates increased for most species surveyed. Total ducks increased 21% to 192,449.
Mallards jumped 8% to 83,432. Importantly, the mallard numbers reported from Washington, Oregon, California, and British Columbia surveys inform the Adaptive Harvest Management formula used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to set bag limits for the Pacific Flyway states.
Gadwalls nearly doubled, increasing by 89% to 27,293. The estimates for green-winged teal, cinnamon teal, and wood ducks also showed notable increases over 2025.
Canada geese dropped slightly to 38,428, a 4% decrease year over year.
Oregon
Snowpack and precipitation were generally down across the state, and waterfowl numbers reflected drier conditions. The total duck estimate of 208,712 is down 22% from last year and 21% below the long-term average.
At 75,668, mallards decreased 5% and are 14% below the LTA. Gadwalls increased to 62,948, which is 8% above 2025 and 18% above the LTA. Cinnamon teal also increased, jumping by 31% to 29,738.
Canada geese populations rose 27% to 45,579, putting the species 2% above its LTA.
California
In spite of below-average precipitation this winter across most of the state, wetland managers deemed breeding habitat conditions as “good” for ducks this year. Carryover water in the reservoirs is strong.
Fewer ducks settled in the state this spring, with the estimate of total ducks dropping to 435,937, a 10% decrease and 18% below the long-term average.
Mallards, estimated at 267,101, are the state’s most abundant breeding duck species. Mallards decreased 1% from 2025 and sit 16% below the LTA.
At 61,658, gadwalls decreased 44% from 2025 and are 28% below the LTA. Cinnamon teal increased 8% to 39,745, while shovelers declined 16% to 30,335.
Canada geese in the Northeastern survey area were estimated at 50,611, an 18% decrease from 2025.