Delta Waterfowl Reports: USFWS Annual Waterfowl Survey Estimates 33.44 Million Ducks

Breeding population down 2%, but wetter conditions in Canada could boost duck production

BISMARCK, NORTH DAKOTA — The breeding duck population declined slightly from last spring, but wetland counts increased across southern Canada, according to the 2026 Waterfowl Population Status report released today by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

The total breeding population of ducks in the Traditional Survey Area is estimated at 33.44 million, a 2% decline from last year and 6% below the long-term average in the annual Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey dating back to 1955.

When ducks returned to the prairie breeding grounds in May, they encountered drier conditions across the Dakotas and Montana, and wetter conditions throughout the Canadian prairie provinces. Together, the survey’s May pond count showed 4.76 million ponds, a 14% increase over spring 2025. Notably, Canada was 29% wetter, while U.S. wetlands were down 10%. Overall, the pond count was 9% below the long-term average.

“Although pond counts were higher in Canada, breeding conditions for ducks across most of the prairie pothole region are rated fair to poor,” said Dr. Frank Rohwer, president and chief scientist for Delta Waterfowl. “While production likely will be better in some areas, it’s not the greatest news for duck hunters.”

Mallards, North America’s most abundant duck and a stalwart for hunters, dropped to 5.86 million, an 11% decrease from last year that’s also 26% below the LTA. The mallard breeding population estimate is the lowest since 1993.

In addition to lower numbers, the distribution of breeding mallards is concerning, Rohwer said, pointing to a 26% decrease in the eastern Dakotas and 33% in the western Dakotas and Montana, along with notable drops in southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.

“Mallards continued the recent pattern of having a fairly northern distribution,” Rohwer said. “Parkland and boreal forest mallard numbers were relatively high compared to the prairie habitats, where duck numbers were way off. That is not good for duck production because we know prairie ducks outproduce parkland and boreal forest ducks.”

On a more encouraging note regarding 2026 mallard populations: Mallards were up in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, according to the results of spring surveys conducted by game agencies in each state. The Upper Midwest state totals are not part of the mallard estimate in the Traditional Survey Area, but the data is listed in the USFWS Waterfowl Population Status report and used to help set management objectives.

Blue-winged teal, the second-most abundant puddle duck in North America, declined by 11% to 3.96 million. Like mallards, bluewings are now at the lowest breeding population estimate since 1993.

Among the seven species of puddle ducks listed in the Traditional Survey Area results, only shovelers increased. Shovelers jumped 19% to 3.29 million. Gadwall, at 2.35 million, decreased a moderate 3% from last year. Wigeon and green-winged teal each declined 8%, while pintails joined mallards and blue-winged teal at an 11% decline. Even with decreases this spring, gadwalls, wigeon, and green-winged teal all remain above the LTA.

The pintail estimate dropped to 1.99 million, marking the third time in the past five years the breeding population has dipped below 2 million. The 2026 estimate puts pintails 48% below the LTA. 

“Given the wetland conditions, I expected pintails to be down a bit on the prairies,” said Dr. Todd Arnold, Delta’s senior scientist. “It’s a little surprising that pintails dropped in the Alaska/Yukon Territory/Old Crow Flats region, too.”

The survey region of Central and Northern Alberta/Northeast British Columbia/Northwest Territory accounted for 765,000 pintails, which is nearly 40% of the continental breeding population. The pintail estimate for that region is twice the LTA.

“Diving duck species are a bright spot in an otherwise dismal report,” Arnold said, citing population increases for canvasbacks, redheads, and scaup. Canvasbacks are estimated at 782,000, a 13% jump. Redheads climbed to 931,000, a 1% increase. Scaup, also known as bluebills, moved up to 4.16 million, a notable 13% increase over last year.

Results for the Eastern Survey Area were similar to 2025. At 890,000, mallard populations declined 2%, although the population is 23% below the LTA. Black ducks decreased 6% to 739,000, while green-winged teal also declined 6% to 320,000. Continuing the theme of positive news on diving ducks, ring-necked ducks jumped 9% to 829,000. Goldeneyes declined 7% to 668,000, while mergansers increased 6% to 680,000.

Mike Buxton, waterfowl programs director for Delta, reminds hunters that every fall flight consists not only of the breeding population of ducks, but also the ducks produced after the survey.

“The timing of when we have water on the landscape makes a big difference for ducks,” Buxton said. “The Eastern Dakotas started out dry without much winter runoff. A lot of the temporary and seasonal ponds dried out quickly, and then after a few weeks, we had rain after rain to fill them back up. But it was after ducks had already settled (and the survey was conducted). The ducks that did settle in the Eastern Dakotas should have had good production.”

Brood surveys conducted by the North Dakota Game and Fish Department in July showed a 55% increase in broods. As a result, North Dakota alone is projected to produce a fall flight of 4 million ducks, more than both 2024 and 2025.

In Canada, Buxton is hopeful the prairie region that is so critical for ducks might be emerging from several years of drought conditions.

“I think we’re looking at a good change in prairie Canada from last year,” Buxton said. “Overall, the pond counts in Canada this year are a welcome sight. Spring water conditions were better, and the rains continued after the birds settled. I don’t think it’ll be a banner year for production, but it should be better than the past few years. Prairie Canada seems to be on track to come out of a prolonged drought. Hopefully, from a duck numbers standpoint, it’ll start to turn around.”

NOTE: The Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey and the Waterfowl Status Report are the result of a collaborative effort conducted annually by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Canadian Wildlife Service, and the Atlantic, Mississippi, Central, and Pacific Flyway Councils.

Delta Waterfowl is The Duck Hunters Organization, a leading conservation group founded in 1911 that uses science-based solutions to produce ducks, conserve prairie wetlands, and ensure the future of waterfowl hunting in North America. Visit our website.

For more information, contact Dr. Frank Rohwer.